No, the US's 25 per cent car tariff hasn't been paused: who could win, or lose?

Update 10 April: despite President Trump's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, the 25 per cent tariff on non-US cars is still in place. Top Gear examines which carmakers could lose... or win.

JLR - loser

About a quarter of JLR's production goes to the US, and it has no plants there. It'll be hit hard. Even if the UK does a trade deal and the 25 per cent tariff is cut for UK-made cars, the hot-selling Defender is made in Slovakia, in the EU.

Lotus - loser

Few China-made cars of any brand go to the US, but among them are the Lotus Eletre and Emeya, from a factory in Wuhan.

Mini – loser

Although it sells China-made EVs here, for the US its production is made in the UK (hatch) and Germany (Countryman) with mostly British engines. In any case they compete in the US with US-made cars from Japanese, Korean and US brands.

Audi - loser

Makes none of its cars in the US, nor engines. Mostly assembled in the EU, which looks miles from a trade deal. Its best-selling car is the Q5, which Audi chose to build in Mexico because of the US Mexico Canada Agreement and its predecessor the North America Free Trade Agreement. Oops.

General Motors - loser

Really took advantage of the liberalisation of trade across the Mexican and Canadian borders. Now its comparatively low US production and content will haunt it. It has a lot of factories in the US but reconfiguring them will take time and big investment at a time when profits and share price, both hit by the tariffs, would be falling.

Volkswagen - loser

Although it has a big US plant, about two-thirds of the cars it sells in the US are foreign made, including from its big Mexican plant which makes the Tiguan.

Rolls-Royce - loser

Yes, its US customers will likely pay extra. They'll have to: it uses German engines and many other components, so if eventually the UK does a trade deal it won't see the full benefit.

Tesla - winner

To nobody's great surprise, the car company run by the President's advisor and supporter Elon Musk faces a much smaller impact than most. All its cars sold in the US are made there.

Rivian - winner

The other large-scale maker that builds all its vehicles in the States.

Ford - winner

Its manufacturing footprint for vehicles it sells in the US is much more local than GM's. Its global operations, including the relatively large one in Europe, are well quarantined as they neither sell many vehicles to the US or buy many from there.

Nissan - winner... ish

From a UK standpoint, its plant doesn't sell Qashqais, Jukes or Leafs (renewed this year) to the US. But it might face pricing pressure from rivals diverting cars previously bound for the US into the UK. And its US operations are not as deeply embedded as some rivals.

McLaren - winner... ish

A spokesperson told Top Gear the "handmade in Britain" cachet matters a lot to US buyers, so it isn't even considering a US plant. Its customers over there are pretty likely to stump for the tariff cost, especially as there aren't really local rivals. Apart from Aston, rivals are European and if Britain does a trade deal to reduce the 25 per cent tariff, and the EU doesn't, then McLaren could gain against Ferrari, Porsche, Lamborghini, AMG-Mercedes, et al.

Aston Martin – see McLaren

It's perma-cheerful boss Adrian Hallmark said "never waste a crisis, accelerate into it with optimism and a plan". He was exemplary in steering Bentley through the double chaos of Brexit and Covid.

Hyundai and Kia – winners

They have established very high manufacturing footprints in the US.